The Climate Prediction Center’s October 8, 2026 update kept the El Niño Advisory in place and said a strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through January-March 2027, with odds above 83%. CPC also put the chance of a historic event, stronger than anything since 1950, at 83% for October through December. For Skagit County homeowners the forecast is useful, but it can lull you if you read it as “mild winter, nothing to do.” The county’s flood risk comes from individual storms, not seasonal averages, and last December showed how quickly that risk can arrive.
What a strong El Niño usually means here
The traditional Pacific Northwest rule of thumb is that El Niño winters run warmer than normal, often drier, with less lowland snow and a thinner Cascade snowpack. NOAA’s seasonal outlooks this year have leaned that way for temperature, favoring above-normal warmth across the Northwest.
The caveat is that very strong events do not always follow the rule. In June 2026, regional climatologists quoted by the Washington State Standard and OPB noted there have been only three such “super” El Niños since 1980, and Oregon’s state climatologist cautioned that the very strong ones do not reliably behave like typical events. CPC makes the same point in its own discussion: an event this large makes El Niño-like impacts more likely, not guaranteed.
For a homeowner, the practical reading is simple. Expect a winter that probably tilts warm. Do not expect that to protect you from a flood, a windstorm, or a multi-day outage.
Warm winters still flood the Skagit
The December 2025 flood is the reference point. An unusually strong atmospheric river dropped a foot or more of rain on parts of western Washington over several days. Skagit County officials described the forecasts as record-setting by several feet, and Mount Vernon ordered evacuations in the river’s floodplain. According to Associated Press reporting, the Skagit crested at about 37 feet in Mount Vernon, edging past the previous record by a few inches. The downtown floodwall completed in 2018 held. In Burlington, roughly 1,000 residents evacuated overnight, according to Governor Bob Ferguson.
That winter was also notably warm. State climate reporting described October 2025 through January 2026 as the warmest first four months of a water year on record in Washington. Warmth matters because rain falling on mountain snow, instead of snow accumulating, sends water straight into the rivers. A warm El Niño winter does not remove that mechanism; a single warm, wet storm can still drive the Skagit, the Samish, and the smaller creeks over their banks.
Skagit County’s own flood materials put the main flood season between October and March, and describe flooding as one of the most common and, on an annual average basis, the costliest hazards in the county.
Flood readiness for owners and buyers
Check the map, then check the policy
Look up your parcel on FEMA’s Flood Map Service Center and on Skagit County Planning and Development Services, which hosts the county’s Flood Insurance Study. Zone matters for lender requirements and premiums, but FEMA is blunt that floods happen in every zone and claims come from all of them.
Most homeowners policies do not cover flood damage. National Flood Insurance Program policies generally carry a 30-day waiting period before they take effect, so a policy bought when the river is already rising is too late. A 2022 FEMA release found that fewer than 3% of structures in Clallam, Skagit, and Whatcom counties were covered by NFIP policies. If you live on the delta, in the Nookachamps area, near Hamilton or Lyman, or in older parts of Burlington and Mount Vernon, price a policy now rather than in December.
Know your levee and drainage district
Much of the lower valley depends on dike and drainage districts. Find out which district your property sits in, how it communicates during high water, and whether your access road floods before your house does. For buyers, ask the seller directly about past water in crawlspaces, outbuildings, and wells, and read the Washington seller disclosure statement closely for flood history.
Sign up for alerts before you need them
Skagit County Department of Emergency Management runs a public alert sign-up, and the county holds an annual Flood Awareness Week each October with preparedness and flood insurance sessions. The National Weather Service river forecasts for the Skagit at Mount Vernon and Concrete are the fastest way to see what is coming.
Windstorms and power outages
Puget Sound Energy serves most of Skagit County with electricity, and the familiar pattern of winter outages comes from wind pushing trees into lines, especially in the eastern county and along wooded roads around Sedro-Woolley, Big Lake, and the Fidalgo Island shoreline.
PSE’s own guidance covers the basics worth taking seriously:
- Food and water. PSE recommends keeping 7 to 10 days of water and non-perishable food for major outages. A closed refrigerator stays cold for up to about 12 hours.
- Generators. Run a portable generator outdoors only, never in a garage or partly enclosed space, and keep it at least 20 feet from windows, doors, and vents. Carbon monoxide from improperly placed generators is a recurring cause of storm injuries.
- Downed lines. Treat every wire on the ground as energized and stay at least 35 feet away. Report it to PSE or 911.
- No indoor grills or ranges for heat. Charcoal and gas grills, and natural gas ranges used as heaters, can produce carbon monoxide.
- Tracking. PSE’s outage map and app give restoration estimates; download it while the power is on.
Rural homes have extra failure points
On a well, no power means no water. On a septic system with a pump, no power means the tank stops moving effluent. If your home relies on either, a properly installed transfer switch and a sized generator are worth pricing, and a licensed electrician should handle the connection. Heat pumps lose function in an outage too, so a wood stove or a safe backup heat source is a real consideration in the eastern county, where outages tend to run longer.
A short pre-winter checklist
- Clear gutters, downspouts, and yard drains before November storms.
- Confirm your flood insurance status and the date any new policy would take effect.
- Photograph your home’s contents and store the files off-site for any future claim.
- Know your evacuation route and the high ground nearest your property.
- Stock water, food, medications, batteries, and a battery or hand-crank radio.
- Test your generator outdoors and refresh stored fuel.
- Trim limbs overhanging your roof and service drop, and call PSE about trees near power lines.
The El Niño forecast is a reasonable guess at how the season averages out. Skagit County homeowners are better served by planning for the storm that breaks the average: the policy already in force, the generator already tested, and the alert already set before the first atmospheric river reaches the valley. Buyers closing this winter should put flood insurance quotes and drainage questions on the list next to the inspection.
Preview Skagit is an editorial publication, not a real-estate brokerage or insurance provider. For coverage decisions, consult a licensed insurance agent; for transactions, consult a licensed Washington-State broker.